If you thought smartphones were ubiquitous now — and in certain places they pretty much are — prepare for a whole lot more people to be coming online on their phones in the next five years. Network kit maker Ericsson has published its latest mobility report , based on traffic measurements of live mobile networks, which projects that global smartphone subscriptions will rise from 1.2 billion in 2012 to 4.5 billion by the end of 2018 — a CAGR of 25%. Ericsson is also expecting the monthly mobile data usage per smartphone to rise from 450MB in 2012 to 1,900MB by 2018. Even larger growth is on the cards for tablets, with monthly data usage forecast to rise from 600MB in 2012 to 3,100MB in 2018 — a CAGR of 30%. By 2018, Ericsson also reckons LTE (4G) will cover 60% of the world’s population. As for the mobile data driver, it’s video — with video growth underpinned by increasing availability of faster speed networks as LTE spreads. Larger devices with bigger screens with higher resolutions are also causing users to gobble more MB, according to Ericsson: The fastest growing segment in mobile data traffic is video. Increasing usage is driven by continual growth in the amount of available content as well as the better network speeds that come with HSPA and LTE development. Larger device screens and better resolutions will also drive video traffic as they will enable high definition and eventually even ultra high definition video. Ericsson’s data shows video makes up the largest segment of mobile data traffic today — and is expected to grow by around 60% annually until the end of 2018 when it’s forecast to account for around half of total global traffic, dominating mobile content consumption. Good news if you’re Vine , then. The data also shows music streaming gaining in popularity — with a projected annual growth rate of around 50%, although Ericsson notes there is a “high degree of uncertainty” in the audio forecast because it’s “very dependent on how music streaming services develop over the coming years”. So that likely refers to stuff like Apple being rumoured to get into the streaming space , and the knock on effect a Cupertino iRadio could have on other services, should it indeed come to pass as rumoured. On the social and web front, Ericsson reckons web browsing and social networking will each constitute around 10% of the total data traffic volume in 2018 — so achieving some sort of parity, even if social networking still ends up taking up more of mobile users’ time and therefore more mindshare. According to Ericsson’s data, smartphone users are spending the largest portion of their time on social networks: an average of 85 minutes a day in some networks. Ericsson has also broken out mobile traffic by device type, to give a breakdown of what different devices are being used for right now, which shows how quickly video has established itself on tablets — passing smartphones video volumes already. The latter device type remains the most popular device for social networking, which dovetails with how personal smartphones are vs tablets and laptops which can be shared within groups and families:
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Ericsson: Global Smartphone Subs To Hit 4.5BN By 2018 (25% CAGR), Video To Account For Half Of All Mobile Data Traffic
Apple’s iWatch is the new primary focus of speculation for the company’s unannounced products, and a new article at Bloomberg today detailing its market potential also let slip that the wrist-mounted computer could arrive by the end of this year. Bloomberg’s source, which is one of the same that leaked details about the team within Apple working on the iWatch , said Apple hopes to have the device out to market “as soon as this year.” Bloomberg’s report today adds a bit more color about what we might expect to see from an Apple iWatch, too. The still-unconfirmed device would be able to make calls, check caller ID, relay map coordinates and carry a built-in pedometer and health monitoring sensors, according to the news publication’s source. That might mean another partnership with Nike for built-in fitness tracking, as we’ve seen in iPods and iPhones from the company to date. The news comes after reports from Apple supply partners and Gorilla Glass manufacturer Corning said that products based on its flexible Willow Glass product wouldn’t come to market for another three years, prompting many to assume that meant an iWatch was also at least three years out . Apple had patented a wrist-mounted computer based on flexible display tech, but that’s far from the company’s only option for producing an iWatch – it could easily take a more traditional form, like the Pebble smart watch . Bloomberg also notes that Apple’s chief product designer Jony Ive has also long had an interest in watches, and previously paid a visit with his Apple design team to Nike’s own watchmaking operations. Previously, Bloomberg reported that Apple has an internal team of as many as 100 individuals working on the iWatch project. Of course, despite the growing number of reports around the iWatch, Apple keeps its release timelines purposefully close to the chest for a reason: even if it was targeting a 2013 launch for the iWatch, missing that date wouldn’t actually constitute a delay since nothing has been officially announced. Accordingly, it’s always a good idea to treat rumors at this stage in the game with a healthy dose of skepticism, even when sourced from reputable publications. Still, Google wants to launch its own wearable computing product by year’s end , so there’s at least one reason for Apple to target the same time frame.